My Final Take on the Housing Market & What's to Come for 2018

I expect that in 2018 it will be another year of growth in the economy in which home prices will rise 2 to 3% should GDP continue to rise, low unemployment remains, high confidence in both buyers & sellers, and should the Federal Reserve continue to leave interest rates ultra low. 

News: Today the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates 25 basis points. Thus, the total federal funds interest rates are now 1.5%. (For more info on why this matters for the housing industry, go to my website- on the home page scroll down to the housing chart: https://www.andrewvargas.com)

The Continuation of our Healthy Economy will eventually slow & that's ok! It's the Business Cycle occurring every 7 to 10 years.

Photo above is from a 2016 article and as it states- home prices are above the pre-crises peak in 2007. As of this year, home prices have gone up just a bit higher. The home prices home prices have gone up about 3% to 5% this year from last year. Nevertheless, these percentages all vary depending on the home, neighborhood, and where the home sits such as if the home is located off a main street or cul-de-sac etc. Below you can figure out how much in percentage your home value has gone up since 2016- see below:

 Do this by plugging in your home price numbers in this equation. Determine what the home value/price was of your home in 2016 and 2017 (you can ask me to solve if you'd like). After doing this just plug in to the equation and there you'll have your answer. As of this year it is said, home prices have gone up 3-5% since last year.

Do this by plugging in your home price numbers in this equation. Determine what the home value/price was of your home in 2016 and 2017 (you can ask me to solve if you'd like). After doing this just plug in to the equation and there you'll have your answer. As of this year it is said, home prices have gone up 3-5% since last year.

 Above, you'll see how much home prices fell from the peak in 2005/2006. Home prices fell about 25% from homes ranging $500,000 to $1,000,000. Home prices for homes above $1,000,000 fell roughly 15% to 20%.   Fortunately home prices should not fall this drastically in our next recession due to the content (in the photos) as shown below from NAR.   Also I spoke to a Senior Economist from NAR, he predicts home prices will fall about 5-6% in the next recession. 

Above, you'll see how much home prices fell from the peak in 2005/2006. Home prices fell about 25% from homes ranging $500,000 to $1,000,000. Home prices for homes above $1,000,000 fell roughly 15% to 20%. 

Fortunately home prices should not fall this drastically in our next recession due to the content (in the photos) as shown below from NAR. Also I spoke to a Senior Economist from NAR, he predicts home prices will fall about 5-6% in the next recession. 

Appears that the economy will begin to slow in 2019 or 2020. Thus, 2021 being the peak of the next recession.

Initially my thoughts were that a correction would take place in 2018 but due to the outcome of the presidential election this year, stock market going strong, low unemployment, inflation being ultra low- it appears the economy won't slow down in 2018 but will continue to grow healthy. Again, this can all change at anytime and you can somewhat see this by the behavior from the Federal Reserve (raising interest rates). Please keep in mind that a financial planner or economist would be the best person to ask regarding this as I'm neither of those but merely a voracious reader.

Some Interesting Info below to ease your concerns that the next recession we face won't be as bad as the Great Recession (in terms of the housing market)

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Note- Should you want more information on the (National Association of Realtors) content above, please let me know and I'll send you the presentation.

Looking forward to help you. You can reach out to me at anytime.

As a realtor, I fully understand and appreciate that behind every home, there is a story. My objective is not simply to sell but to strategically craft a powerful marketing narrative to both capture and ensure the right homebuyer in a timely manner.

I'm more than happy to speak with you over coffee or over the phone to explain my extensive marketing and professional services in helping you sell or buy a home.

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Andrew Vargas